Some things are worth the wait. Event No. 65 of the 2014 World Series of Poker is about to resume after a four-month hiatus. This is the big one, the $10,000 No Limit Hold’em Main Event, where the winner gets to take home $10 million. Back in July, they whittled the field down from 6,683 to the nine players you’ll see at the final table. It starts on November 10 at the Rio in Las Vegas. Here are the odds for this year’s November Nine.
Odds to win 2014 World Series of Poker:
Jorryt van Hoof 57/20 (+285) Felix Stephensen 4/1 (+400) Mark Newhouse 5/1 (+500) Andoni Larrabe 7/1 (+700) Dan Sindelar 15/2 (+750) Martin Jacobson 8/1 (+800) Will Pappaconstantinou 10/1 (+1000) William Tonking 12/1 (+1200) Bruno Politano 16/1 (+1600)
So how should we go about picking a winner? Let’s start by looking at their chip counts. There are 200,475,000 chips in play at the Main Event. Here’s how the odds would round out based purely on stack size:
Van Hoof (38,375,000 Chips) 17/4 (+425) Stephensen (32,775,000 Chips) 5/1 (+500) Newhouse (26,000,000 Chips) 27/4 (+675) Larrabe (22,550,000 Chips) 8/1 (+800) Sindelar (21,200,000 Chips) 17/2 (+850) Jacobson (14,900,000 Chips) 25/2 (+1250) Pappaconstantinou (17,500,000 Chips) 21/2 (+1050) Tonking (15,050,000 Chips) 45/4 (+1225) Politano (12,125,000 Chips) 31/2 (+1550)
You’ll notice that the nine participants are bunched more closely together when it comes to their chip counts. Van Hoof’s World Series of Poker odds in real life are much shorter, partly because he’s talented – a cash poker veteran with $1.2 million in live tournament earnings – and partly because people tend to overvalue the biggest stacks at the table, just like they tend to overvalue favorites in other sports. Don’t forget about the built-in juice, as well.
Van Hoof has a lot of competition this November. The most accomplished player at the table is Jacobson, and as you can see, he’s getting shorter WSOP odds than Pappaconstantinou and Tonking despite having the shortest stack of the three. Jacobson is a regular fixture on the European Poker Tour and the top money-winner from Sweden at over $5.5 million in live tournaments. He might have the skill edge on the rest of the table, but is it enough to justify these odds?
Then you have Newhouse, whom many poker fans will recognize from his (albeit brief) November Nine appearance last year. You’ll have to pay a premium to pick Newhouse, too. He’s no slouch, having won over $3.5 million in his tournament career, including the top prize of over $1.5 million at the 2006 Borgata Poker Open. Newhouse should also have a preparation advantage based on last year’s experience. But again, it’s tough to recommend buying him at 5/1.
The bargains at the final table are found with the shorter stacks. It’ll be difficult for any of these three gentlemen to win, but they have value as relative unknowns, and with the blinds at $200K/$400K to start, they’ll each have at least 30 big blinds to work with. Pappaconstantinou and his 44 big blinds might be your best option at these odds. Or you could group Pappaconstantinou with the other Americans in the field (Newhouse, Sindelar, Tonking) and bet them at +150 to bring it home for the United States. The rest of the field is favored at –200.
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WSOP No Limit Poker